Cllr Alan Dean

Liberal Democrat Councillor for Stansted North on Uttlesford District Council and former Leader of the Liberal Democrat Group Learn more

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Democratic disconnection as voters swing to “none of the above”

by Alan Dean on 5 May, 2013

Thursday’s local elections were a shock to established parties and a boost to Ukip and “non-party”, independent candidates. Independents are often backed by party machines, as was the case of Saffron Walden with the WeAreResidents candidate. Yet there is no denying that Thursday’s election found a quarter to a third of voters supporting people without labels like Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat; “the establishment”. Across rural England Ukip garnered the “none of the above” votes.

In Uttlesford Ukip scored over 20% in two seats where there was no strong community alternative candidate to the Conservatives, but less where there was. In Saffron Walden and Stansted county divisions, where there were strong alternatives, Ukip’s score was respectively only 10% and 17% (even with a candidate who lives in Chelmsford).

The Saffron Walden result was a win for the WeAreResidents anti-local plan candidate, who took the county seat from the Conservatives in a three-way split between Con, WAR and “the rest”. The Tory vote fell to 33.5%, the lowest in the district, presumable because WAR picked up more Tory-leaning voters who were comfortable with an “independent” candidate. Ukip and the Lib Dems were level pegging on 10%.

The Stansted county result was a Tory hold with 40.7% of all votes. The Lib Dems had strong hopes of taking the seat; they were less than 1% and 100 votes behind the Tories four years ago. On Thursday the gap widened to 500 votes despite a lower turnout than in 2009. The conclusion I draw is that more voters switched from the Lib Dems to Ukip than switched from the Conservatives. That conclusion was also drawn by the BBC’s Nick Robinson on Friday for Essex as a whole.

The Lib Dems’ failure to pick up the Stansted county seat was compounded by their loss of a district council seat at a by-election in Newport. This was won by another anti-local plan independent candidate allied to WeAreResidents in Saffron Walden.

Across England the Lib Dem vote held up well where the Liberal Democrats are strongly established with MPs and with well established council teams, such as in Colchester. In Uttlesford that edge and the ability to buck the trend seem to have been lost; at least temporarily.

Where does this leave the local parties facing a general election and district council elections in May 2015? In Ukip the Tory Party faces its own “SDP”  in the way the Labour Party did in the 1980s. The Right could be badly split in 2015, making a new government which includes Conservatives less likely that in 2010.

That division will rub off on local Conservatives and their prospects for retaining control of Uttlesford, already damaged by their mishandling of future planning for the district; their Democratic Disconnection. The question is: who will fill the vacuum? Will it be single-issue residents’ groups like WeAreResidents? Will it be a resurgent Liberal Democrats offering a positive, alternative agenda to local people? Will it be some sort of coalition of those who will restore a Democratic Connection with local people?

The election results may be read in full on the website of The Reporter.

   3 Comments

3 Responses

  1. Al South says:

    Bonkers how people voted for the WAR candidate on a platform of changing the local plan when the County Council has no influence on the Districts plans.

    Almost as bonkers as people voting UKIP on immigration and Europe in a County Council election!

  2. Alan Dean says:

    The current official reason for the delay in progressing the local plan is Essex County Council’s non-delivery of highways capability assessments, so ECC does have a role, albeit secondary but important.

  3. Dan Starr says:

    Nice balanced article as always Alan.
    Saffron Walden is the cradle of democracy; in May 1647 Cromwell based his headquarters here. This election was democracy in action – of the people, by the people, and for the people – and the people have clearly spoken. It is almost unheard of for an unknown independent with no local profile and supported by a group that has never run an election to de-seat a multi-term County incumbent from a national party. This is especially so when the incumbent’s party has a lock on all levels of government, from town upwards to central government.

    In Essex, Saffron Walden had the highest turnout (37.8%), with Stansted just behind (37.5%). In Walden the Torys had their lowest ever vote in the nearly 50-year election history recorded on the ECC website; a humiliation for them given the large population increase in town over the last 40 years. And this is on top of the 99% rejection of their Local Plan strategy in 2012.
    Watching the SW division boxes come in at the count, it was clear that the village vote was still strong for the Torys, but there was almost no support in Walden. For some town stations it looked close to 90% of the ballots coming out of the boxes going onto the Independent pile. That means that if the Tory controlled UDC Cabinet don’t change their highly unpopular Local Plan, they could face a rout in Walden in 2 years’ time at the District elections. And if they don’t change tack, then they will have made it clear to the voters of Saffron Walden that they don’t care about their opinions and are prepared to lose the seats, as they retrench back to their more rural strong holds. It may allow them to keep the short term balance-of-power at Uttlesford, but a retrenchment from a whole (populous) area weakens their long term position. Just ask Alex Salmond about independence and the Tory rout and retreat from Scotland.

    After 366 years, democracy is alive and very well in Saffron Walden. Oliver Cromwell is not turning in his grave.

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